Voter engagement has risen to an all-time high for a midterm election with less than three weeks until Election Day, and the majority of registered voters think this election is “more important” to them than previous elections.
Furthermore, 80% of Republicans and Democrats agree that the political opposition is a danger that, if left unchecked, will obliterate America as we know it.
And even if a candidate for their party had a moral shortcoming that went against their own values, two-thirds of dependable Democratic and Republican voters said they would still back them.
These are some of the key conclusions from a recent national NBC News poll that indicates a competitive election in November and provides encouraging signals for both parties.
President Joe Biden’s approval rating among Democrats is still at 45%, congressional preferences are roughly even (47% of registered voters prefer Democrats to control Congress, compared to 46% who want Republicans in power), and “threats to democracy” are still the top concern for voters, according to a third straight NBC News poll.
The good news for Republicans is that Biden’s favorability ratings among independents and voters in swing states are in the low 30s and 30s, that the GOP still enjoys a significant advantage in enthusiasm, and that Republicans are preferred by 48% to 47% of likely voters, a margin that is well within the survey’s margin of error.
Beyond the tremendous interest in the election and the horse race results, the poll’s most striking finding is the partisan rage among Democratic and Republican voters when asked what one message they would like to convey with their ballots.
A male Republican caller from Missouri replied, “Tell Biden to quit.”
An American female Republican from New York state yelled, “Save this country.”
A Massachusetts Democrat male said, “Democracy is in risk.”
A Democratic woman from California stated, “Don’t meddle with reproductive rights.”
Republican Bill McInturff and his team at Public Opinion Strategies conducted the poll with Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates. He said: “We know that many voters will be casting ballots with anger on their minds. We simply don’t know which side will be more irate.
The poll finds that 47% of registered voters favor a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 46% prefer a Republican-controlled Congress. This is essentially the same as last month, when the parties were evenly divided at 46%.
Black people (who prefer Democratic control of Congress by 74% to 13%), voters between the ages of 18 and 34 (60% to 30%), Latino voters (57% to 30%), and women (50% to 43%) provide Democrats some of their biggest advantages.
With white voters (55% to 40%), white voters without college degrees (61% to 33%), and men (49% to 43%), Republicans have the advantage.
And with 40% of the independent vote, the parties are deadlocked.
A Republican-controlled Congress is preferred by 48% of the “likely voters” in the NBC News survey, as opposed to a Democratic-controlled Congress, who are those with high levels of interest in voting or high predicted turnout scores.
This cycle’s poll is the first to gauge probable voters.
A “EYE-POPPER” IN THE ELECTION
The survey also discovered that 70% of all registered voters were very interested in the election, rating it a “9” or a “10” on a scale of 1 to 10. This was the highest percentage ever for a midterm election at this time.
When you have a larger percentage now than in 2018, which broke the record for a midterm election, McInturff, the GOP pollster, said, “It’s an eye-popper.”
However, compared to 69% of Democrats, 78% of Republicans have a high level of interest in the midterm elections.
The GOP excitement advantage of 9 points has increased from plus-3 in September and plus-3 in August (when it was plus-2).
Additionally, 57% of all voters feel the next congressional elections are more significant to them than previous midterm elections, which is a higher percentage than what the polls indicated for 2018 (52%), or for 2010 (44%).
37 percent believe it to be equally crucial to previous midterms, while 6 percent believe it to be less so.
Republican interest in the upcoming midterm elections is higher than Democratic interest, with 68% of Republicans saying the election is more important to them than to 53% of Democrats.
BIDEN’S APPROVAL, CONTINUED NATIONAL DIRECTION
According to the study, 52% of registered voters disapprove of Biden’s overall job performance, while 45% of those who responded in favor of him do so.
As with most recent presidents whose party lost control of at least one chamber of Congress in their first midterm elections, Biden’s approval rating is in the same range.
Barack Obama’s approval rating in the NBC News/WSJ survey from October 2010 was 45%. (when Democrats lost 63 House seats in the midterm election). The approval rating for Donald Trump was 46% in early November 2018. (when the GOP lost 40 House seats).
Biden has the highest approval ratings among voters who identify as Black (70%), urban (61%), voters between the ages of 18 and 34 (54%) and Latinos (51%).
Independents (37%), suburban women (40%) and voters from swing states (41%), on the other hand, have far lower approval ratings for him.
Voters are divided on the country’s orientation, with 71% believing it is going in the wrong direction and only 20% believing it is.
The incorrect track response has exceeded 70% in the last seven NBC News polls six times in a row.
The Republican pollster McInturff added, “These are incredibly terrible data for Democrats, and they have had them for months.”
And 20% predict that the economy will improve during the coming year, 26% predict that it will stay about the same, and 50% predict that it will worsen – the largest percentage on the subject since 1994.
A Divulged Parliament
The results of the NBC News survey highlight how divided the electorate is.
Eighty-one percent of Democrats say they fear that the Republican Party’s plan would obliterate America as we know it if it is not stopped.
Republicans share an almost same opinion of the Democratic Party’s platform (79%).
The ‘Contract with America’ seems to be no longer being sought after by voters. According to Democratic pollster Horwitt, they desire a divorce.
When asked what they would do if a GOP candidate they supported was shown to have a moral failing in their business, marriage, or personal life, 67% of GOP voters who say they prefer Republicans to control Congress responded that they would still vote for that candidate.
Comparatively, a total of 22% stated they would either avoid the election or support a Democrat or third-party candidate.
When asked the same question about Democratic voters who preferred a Democratic-controlled Congress, 63% indicated they would still support the Democratic candidate, while 26% said they wouldn’t by staying home, supporting the Republican candidate, or casting a third-party ballot.
9% of registered voters report having already cast a ballot in the midterm elections, 40% plan to vote early (by mail or in person), and 47% will go to the polls on election day.
Compared to 19% who are not convinced, 77% of respondents said they are confident that their votes will be counted early. Additionally, 60% believe Biden won the 2020 election legitimately, as opposed to 33% (and 65% of Republicans) who disagree. The margin of error for TheNBC News poll is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points and it was conducted from October 14 to 18 among 1,000 registered voters, 750 of whom were contacted by cellphone.
The plus-minus 3.47 percentage point margin of error applies to the 797 people who have been designated as likely voters.