Can Rep. Tim Ryan win the state’s U.S. Senate election?
In a state that former President Donald Trump won by sizable majorities, the Democrat is running commercials on Fox News that talk nonstop about China and promising. J.D. Vance, the author of “Hillbilly Elegy,” his Republican rival, has Trump’s support but is under fire for allegedly coasting as Ryan outraised, outspent, and outworked him.
Some local GOP leaders believe that the general election is too close for comfort and has had trouble hiding their frustrations, despite the paucity of independent polls. One Republican insider in the state, who asked to remain anonymous in order to speak frankly, said of Vance’s campaign, “They are burning bridges quicker than they can build them.”
Ryan, on the other hand, is portraying himself as a populist who is post-partisan and who a voter would mistake for a Republican.
After visiting a business incubator inside a former rubber factory in the heart of Akron this week, Ryan told NBC News that conservatives aren’t always in the wrong. Democrats don’t always have it right.
An argument over political identity and authenticity has been sparked by the open Senate seat where Republican incumbent Rob Portman is not running for re-election. Will Ohioans’ vote for Vance, a vocal Trump opponent who now supports the right-wing culture wars, help the state’s rightward swing toward Trumpism? Or will they choose Ryan, a 10-term congressman and former presidential candidate who focuses on issues that affect people at their kitchen tables, avoids President Joe Biden, and appeals to working-class voters who have defected from the Democratic Party?
Many folks simply understand that something is wrong, Ryan added. “We’re all upset with one another. We’re all mad since the pandemic caused the economy to collapse. Who will then get forward and command everyone to lay down their arms? Let’s solve the problem. Let’s chat.”
It has drawn attention to the point where Vance can’t make fundraising calls without hearing about Ryan’s GOP-friendly message.
In a phone conversation, Vance stated, “I actually spoke to a contributor yesterday who told me that he thought Tim Ryan was running in the Republican primary. And because he believed the Republican primary was done, he was perplexed.
After winning that contentious, pricey campaign, in which his pro-Trump credentials were closely probed, Vance basically disappeared. According to AdImpact, a media monitoring company, Ryan, who handily defeated two less well-known contenders for his party’s nomination, has spent more than $7.5 million on advertising since then. Vance and an affiliated super PAC funded by computer tycoon Peter Thiel have spent just $132,000 collectively throughout the same period. According to an recent finance report, the campaign entered July owing more money than it had on hand ($883,000), however Vance has access to other PACs and anticipates having stronger funding for the fall. This debt includes a $700,000 personal loan from Vance.
In essence, Vance added, “I see this race as Tim doing this crazy thing that implies we’ll never spend a dollar on TV.” Because he consistently sided with his own party on all issues, large and little, his entire public persona is doomed to collapse.
Vance’s difficulties were dismissed by Dave Johnson, the GOP chair in Columbiana County, which is located south of Ryan’s Youngstown district and serves as a gateway to the state’s distant and rural regions where Republicans have recently racked up victories.
Johnson stated, “He just had a very expensive primary, and I think his priority at this point is to attempt to raise the money he’ll need to put together an efficient TV campaign.”
Anyone who believes Tim Ryan will gain support from Trump supporters in Ohio, he continued, “is smoking something.”
Over the past three decades, Democrats have had limited success in Ohio’s statewide elections; the only notable exceptions are Sen. Sherrod Brown and a few justices of the state Supreme Court who were elected in nonpartisan general elections.
Ryan has made trips to southern and southeast Ohio a priority. Some Democrats have questioned whether or not he is overcorrecting at the risk of losing the liberal base of the party in Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati.
But I think most Democrats here, especially in those southern counties, are happy to have a candidate they can put a yard sign up for, wear a T-shirt for, and be proud to say, “Tim Ryan’s my guy,” Ryan said. “And to not have every independent or Republican think that they’re mad.”
Ryan’s focus on southern Ohio, according to Collin Docterman, the Democratic chair in Scioto County, where Vance campaigned this week, could help reduce GOP margins in November. In 2016, Brown, who similarly catered to those working-class neighborhoods, won a third term by just under 7 points against a weak opponent, whereas Portman was re-elected by more than 20 points in 2016.
Trump remains a very compelling character in this place, according to Docterman. “You’re speaking with the Democratic Party chair of a county that heavily supported J.D. Vance throughout the nomination process. Having said that, Tim Ryan does appear to be making a lot of effort to connect with the core group of people who have strayed.”
Democrat Nan Whaley, the former mayor of Dayton, is running against Republican Gov. Mike DeWine for re-election this year. Unlike Vance, DeWine has refrained from becoming too involved in the culture wars. She and Ryan are competing in clearly dissimilar races.
Ryan, who has an Planned Parenthoods endorsement rating, speaks passionately about the right to an abortion when prompted, but Whaley turned the topic into the focal point of her campaign after the US Supreme Court reversed Roe vs. Wade. Ryan, an anti-abortion until 2015, recognized that split-ticket voters would support Whaley and DeWine while rejecting him.
He remarked, “I mean, I really don’t have the luxury to worry about anybody else. “We’re attempting to develop a message and a central theme that everybody may adopt. But this is all we’re concentrating on.”
The two key pieces of evidence that Vance thinks contradict Ryan’s moderate character are his voting history in the House and his prior remarks about promising0. Ryan, who is known for declaring “you don’t have to agree with somebody 100% of the time,” has consistently supported Biden’s program, promising1.
promising2 stated that Ryan and other Democratic Senate candidates did not respond to loaded questions on matters of gender identity, such as how they define the term “woman,” and whether they think a man can become pregnant. Ryan and other Democratic Senate candidates have been vocal about these issues.
“Do I believe it’s a major concern for the typical Ohio voter? Definitely not, “said Vance. “They are concerned that they cannot afford to put food on the table as a result of Tim Ryan and Joe Biden. But do I believe Tim Ryan’s inability to provide frank answers to simple questions is a good indicator of the kind of political leader he is? True, I do.”
When questioned this week about his commitment to Biden, Ryan—who attended the president’s recent event in Ohio—offered two grounds of contention. He is angry that the president is preventing taxes on Chinese solar panel producers while ignoring possible trade infractions. He also expressed his frustration over the fact that no tax cut has been passed.
Ryan also dislikes Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a leftist firebrand from New York who supported other Democratic Senate candidates in close races following the Roe ruling. It has been portrayed as an endorsement by Vance’s campaign and others.
Ryan remarked, “This is hardly a helpful endorsement.” Nor did I look for it.
Veteran Republican strategist in Ohio who opposed Vance in the primary questioned whether he was counting on Trump to support him once more in the general election.
The strategist, who isn’t sure if he’ll support Vance this fall and asked to remain anonymous so that he could speak openly, claimed that if Trump appeared at two rallies, the election would be decided. “Ryan is doing a respectable job of reaching out. Will the Democrats be able to mobilize enthusiasm and support for a candidate who does not adhere to the progressive party platform?”
Ryan is putting together a special coalition, according to Justin Barasky, who ran Brown’s 2018 campaign and works for the company making Ryan’s advertisements.
In this state, “the vast majority of Republicans, independents, and Democrats care about the same things,” according to Barasky. “This state is not politically aligned in the same way as Wyoming, Alabama, or the Dakotas are. It simply isn’t. It’s not shocking that Tim Ryan could succeed when you have someone like him who sort of embodies that worn-out middle.”