There are many speculations following the Crimean bridge attack, but few concrete solutions.


Following an explosion on Saturday, a fire broke out on the Kerch bridge connecting the Crimea to Russia. via Getty Images for AFP remove caption

switch to caption via Getty Images for AFP

Following an explosion on Saturday, a fire broke out on the Kerch bridge connecting the Crimea to Russia.

via Getty Images for AFP Ukraine’s KYIV Russian and Ukrainian authorities are still swapping allegations and putting up opposing ideas as to what and who caused the explosion, nearly a week after it destroyed a crucial bridge in Crimea. But certain solutions continue to elude us.

Eight individuals were detained on Wednesday by the Russian Federal Security Service on suspicion of taking part in a complex plot to demolish the Crimean bridge. According to investigators, tons of explosives were concealed and delivered to several nations before the attack on Saturday by Russians, Ukrainians, and an Armenian. According to Russia, a truck bomb was placed on the bridge by a driver who had no prior ties to terrorism in order to cause as much damage as possible.

However, Mykhailo Podolyak, a key advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, claims that Ukrainian intelligence thinks Russian soldiers organized the attack as a cover to escalate the war in Ukraine.

According to Podolyak, “the Crimea bridge tragedy provides the Russian military with a good excuse for all of its defeats in southern Ukraine.”

A LOT OF THEORIES, BUT FEW ARE CERTAIN. There are several plausible theories on who carried out the attack on October 8 and how they did it, both in Ukraine and outside. However, despite all of the publicly accessible pictures and films, according to University of Sheffield impact dynamics expert Andrew Barr, “it’s rather impossible to be definite about this.”

Before a blaze of light engulf the bridge, surveillance footage published by Russian media shows a single truck traveling from mainland Russia toward Crimea. At least three collapsed road bridges may be seen in photos published by independent media groups sitting unevenly on piers in the shallow sea.

updated pictures on social media Wednesday also revealed twisted support beams on the routes leading to Russia. Only a few hours after the explosion, that side of the bridge was reopened to traffic.

In response to a claim that a special naval operation damaged the bridge from below, Nick Waters, an analyst with the digital forensics firm Bellingcat, points out that the bridge’s underbelly exhibits hardly any blast damage.

In contrast to the bridge’s undamaged bottom, the road top is blackened in Maxar Technologies’ satellite image released .

The 180-mile distance from Ukrainian-held territory was cited as a technological impediment by Ukrainian experts to immediately dismissed the notion that a Ukrainian missile had hit the bridge shortly after the incident. refused has the capability to produce missiles that can travel that far for the United States and other nations that contribute arms to Ukraine.

The FSB released a video of a “inspection of the truck” and a supposed explosives “X-ray” from the truck. The FSB does not mention where on the “x-ray” another axle with wheels and a frame vanished.

English-language edition of Ukrainska Pravda October 12, 2022 Ukrainian journalists noted that the two photographs indicated points out 0 after Russian official media published the government’s evidence for a truck bomb, the purported truck involved, and an X-ray scan of its load.

Even still, some military specialists think that a truck bomb is most likely to blame, though the perpetrators are difficult to identify.

According to Barr, an expert in examining blast damage in conflict zones, the damage “is absolutely consistent with an explosion in the center of a bridge span,” as anything else would have damaged the pier.

A few people have questioned why the points out 1 appears to have sustained such extensive damage from a single explosion in this satellite view, so here is a quick Bridges 101 on the most likely failure mechanism. points out 2 points out 3

AA14 Andrew Barr (@andrew barr) According to him, the Crimean bridge is built with a single road segment that is detachable from other portions and floats above many piers. A number of other spans are pulled into the water when one span falls in.

Barr also indicates that the truck was laden with specific chemicals that burned hot enough to ignite a passing fuel train running on a parallel rail bridge, seriously weakening it, based on the ways the flames continuously blasted out from the blast site.

Thermite bomb-like flames and sparks, according to retired military demolition specialist Mika Tyry, were seen, according to Finland’s national television points out 5. Although Ukraine points out 8 collected the material from unexploded Russian munitions, Russia’s military points out 6 to utilize points out 7.

With sophisticated explosives and coordinated timing with the train, it was a successful attack on a fortified facility, according to Barr. “That strongly suggests a properly thought-out military operation rather than a single person or other group,” the author said.

After the bridge attack, Russian forces launched more strikes across Ukraine. Russian state media reported on Wednesday that the Crimea bridge attack was planned by the United States in an effort to intensify Russians’ animosity toward the West over Ukraine.

Despite the fact that Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for the explosions, many people in the nation praised it as a Ukrainian win due to the bridge’s strategic and symbolic significance to Russia.

On Monday in Kyiv, emergency services respond to a blast scene. Getty Images/Ed Ram remove caption
switch to caption Getty Images/Ed Ram

On Monday in Kyiv, emergency services respond to the scene of a bomb.

Getty Images/Ed Ram This week, the Ukrainian government was subject to a number of airstrikes launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin in reaction to what he described as “Ukrainian terrorism” on the Crimean bridge. Zelenskyy claimed that more than 150 rockets and drones destroyed vital services in more than half of Ukraine and killed 20 people on popular Ukrainian theory 1 and popular Ukrainian theory 2.

Speaking on behalf of the National Security Council, John Kirby told popular Ukrainian theory 3 that the Russians are not capable of putting something like that together in a matter of days. Putin’s plans to specifically target Ukrainian civilian infrastructure during the past few weeks were continued by this action, which wasn’t done in reaction.